Thursday, September 29, 2016

Europe August 2016

 Image result for BMW i3 in the beach


BMW i3 surges to #1 thanks to arrival of 33 kWh version


The European EV market had more than 13.000 registrations last month, up 19% over August 2015, with the market is set to surpass the 200.000 units by year end. In a relatively stable market, one model stole the show.

Looking at the Monthly Ranking:

Image result for white i3
#1 BMW i3 – Thanks to the massive arrival of the 33 kWh units, the BMW i3 had the anticipated sales surge, jumping directly to Number One in August, with 1.317 units, its best score of the year, while also for the first time in 2016, the BEV version outsold the Rex brethren, meaning that with the extended electric range, buyers feel more safe to go all into the EV game with the BEV version, without needing the safe net of the Range Extender. The largest markets to absorb the extended range Bimmers were Norway (293 units, all BEV) and Germany (280 deliveries, 147 of them BEV).

 Image result for white 2016 Outlander PHEV
#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The Japanese SUV dropped to Second in August, with 1.028 units, but actually Mitsubishi had some good news, as the Outlander PHEV deliveries went up 6% YoY, ending a five month trend of slowing sales. Although dropping in the all-important UK market, Norway and Germany have done the heavy lifting this month, pulling it into the black. And the Japanese brand really needs positive news...

Image result for white Passat GTE 
#3 VW Passat GTE – Besides the usual Sweden and Norway, big time Passat GTE lovers, Volkswagen’s midsize offering  also impressed in the Netherlands, with 119 units, its best result of the year there, allowing it to reach the Third Position, with 916 units. With the right mix of electric range, space, power and a reasonable price, the Passat GTE was destined for success as company car across Europe.

Image result for white Nissan Leaf 
#4 Nissan Leaf – Sales of the Japanese hatch were down 15% last month, to 869 units, with registrations dropping across the continent. In normal circumstances, Nissan would be worried and would try to pull some tricks to turn things around, but this time, the Japanese brand is just keeping production at minimal levels to avoid big unsold stocks, waiting for the big EV Push to be made by the Alliance at the upcoming Paris Auto Show.

 Image result for white Renault Zoe
#5 Renault Zoe – In what is usually a slow month for the French hatch, August turned out to be a not so bad sales month, with registrations up 47% YoY to 857 units and for that it had to thank the German market, that with 256 units, compensated the seasonal slowdown of the French market. Actually, Renault, the owner of the current EV Yellow Jersey in Europe, is probably not that much concerned with the current sales trend of its hatch, as it is preparing itself for the Paris Auto Show big product showdown, where the Zoe is expected to win some interesting new features… 



Image result for tesla model x
Joining the Top 20 soon

  
YTD Ranking

Looking at the YTD ranking, there weren’t significant changes at the top, with the Top 4 positions with no real chances of being contested in the short term.

But the race for #5 should be interesting, now that the rejuvenated BMW i3 is delivering their 33kWh units, the VW Golf GTE better step up the game or else in will have to say Auf Wiedersehen to the Fifth Place.

In the midst of the Summertime Chill season, besides the BMW i3, two other models had excelled in August, the Mercedes B250e had 466 units registered, its best performance ever, while the newly arrived Tesla Model X had its first significant deliveries month in Europe, with 307 units, already pulling it to #15 in the August ranking and #2 in the Luxury SUV class, only behind the Volvo XC90 PHEV, with 333 units.

(Un)Coincidentally, several of the Model X direct competitors had lower than average scores, like the BMW X5 PHEV (223 units, worst result in a year), Mercedes GLE500e (77 units, worst result of 2016), or the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In (154 units, lowest result since December 2014). Do I see a trend here?...

Considering that September is the last month of the Quarter and Tesla usually delivers some Ludicrous performances by that time, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Model X sneaked into the next month Top 5.

“What about two Tesla in September’s Top 5?” – While possible, I don’t believe it will be probable, with Tesla firing on all cylinders electrons to have as much units delivered as possible, I think they will make North America a priority for the MS (It’s simpler to deliver there) and won’t have the manufacturing / logistic ability to deliver so many MS units on this side of the Pond. Go on Tesla, prove me wrong!

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the trophy bearer, Volkswagen (16%), has been successful in fending off its direct competitors, but now it has a new and ambitious runner-up to take in account, as BMW (15%, up 2%) is profiting from a strong (And extensive) line-up to climb in the ranking, this time to Second Place, while dropping Renault to Third, with 14% share.

While BMW is still far from the leadership, 1.870 units behind, to be more precise, the booming sales (i3 33 kWh deliveries, 740e arrival…) of the Bavarian manufacturer means that it won’t be all that surprising to see BMW as Europe’s best-selling EV brand in 2016, by December 31st.

Pl
Europe
Aug.
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Renault Zoe
857
13.864
11
2
2
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1.028
12.803
10
1
3
Nissan Leaf
869
11.835
9
5
4
Tesla Model S
850
8.202
7
4
5
6
7
Volkswagen Golf GTE
BMW i3
Volkswagen Passat GTE
787
1.317
916
7.524
6.916
6.358
6
5
5
3
6
12
8
Mercedes C350e
662
6.022
5
11
9
Volvo XC90 T8
332
5.884
5
18
10
Volkswagen e-Golf
538
4.920
4
4
11
12
BMW 330e
Audi A3 e-Tron
501
268
4.432
4.157
4
3
37
7
13
14
BMW X5 40e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
201
449
3.140
2.968
3
2
22
32
15
Renault Kangoo ZE
298
2.588
2
13
16
Kia Soul EV
385
2.488
2
10
17
Mercedes B250e
466
2.292
2
17
18
19
20
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
231
252
190
2.129
1.995
1.845
2
2
1
9
15
14
TOTAL
13.274
125.682


Japan August 2016

Image result for Mitsubishi plug-in line up
Mitsubishi needs fresh models fast

Mitsubishi Meltdown


The Japanese EV was down 50% YoY in August, with some 1.100 units, placing the YTD numbers at some 17.000 units, approximately the same amount as in in the same period last year, with the EV Share steady at 0.5%. Although the overall numbers follow last year volumes, the way the two local heavy-weights are behaving, couldn't be much different.

The 30kWh-rejuvenated Nissan Leaf continues to be the main driving force, with 11.120 units registered until August, up 64% YoY, with the yearly all-time record for a single model in Japan (14.177 units, scored by the same Leaf, in 2014), expected to be broken this December, an extraordinary feat for a car that will have six years by then...

On the other hand, emissions scandal is hurting badly Mitsubishi, the Outlander PHEV YTD sales are down 28% to little over 4.000 units, while the 151 units sold last month were its worst performance in over three years, to worsen things even further, the Miev family is also in the doldrums, with August presenting symbolic numbers and drops between 70 to 95% YoY.

As consequence of this, Nissan is miles ahead in the manufacturers ranking, with 66% share, 41% ahead of Mitsubishi (26%), while BMW is Third, with 5% share. Toyota may pull a rabbit out of the hat (Prius Prime) in the last months of the year, but for now it seems the German automaker will be the first foreign brand to reach the Podium in Japan.

Speaking of Toyota, there were 63 Mirai registrations...
Pl
Japan
August
  2016
     %Pl '15
1Nissan Leaf79111.12064
2
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1514.16224
1
3BMW i3 e)1008005
4
4Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)504002
7
5Tesla Model S e)252001
6
6
7
8
9
10
11
11
Toyota Prius Plug-In e)
Mitsubishi Minicab Miev
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
BMW i8 e)
BMW 330e e)
Audi A3 e-Tron e)
5
3
7
3
5
5
5
183
166
128
52
40
5
5
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
3
8
5
9
10
N/A
N/A

TOTAL1.15017.261100

e) Estimate






Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Upcoming BEV updates

Image result for opel ampera e
2017 Opel Ampera-e

Discussing the upcoming Paris Auto Show with one of EVS readers, we have reached a timeline for a number of upcoming BEV models:


Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-e - November symbolic arrival, deliveries ramp-up in December;

Opel version arrival in April in selected markets, dissemination across the continent in the 3/4 following months; 


Faraday Future SUV - Somewhere in the second half of 2017, we will see the first production units being delivered;


2018 Hyundai Ioniq BEV (40 kWh?) - Late 2017;



2017 Kia Soul EV (36 kWh) - January 2017;



2017 Nissan Leaf (40kWh battery) - November 2016 arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Nissan Leaf II - 3Q 2017;



Renault Zoe 40 kWh - November arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Renault Twingo EV & Nissan B compact EV - Q1 2017?


2017 Smart ED - December 2016?



Tesla Model 3 - First symbolic deliveries in September 2017, rest of the year to fine tune production, with moderate production quantities and high level of QC. USA-destined units. 

Beginning of 2018, significant ramp up, mainly targeted to North America. 

Second half of 2018, full scale production for all markets.


2017 Volkswagen BEV's - Larger batteries to arrive in January 2017.



Is anyone missing?

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Portugal August 2016

Image result for Mercedes C350e Portugal
Expensive (51k  €) and with a small electric range (31 kms NEDC), this Merc is one of the least
interesting PHEV's on the market, but fleet owners  in Portugal love them. for the wrong reasons

Mercedes C350e #1 

EV Sales continue on a healthy pace, despite August being a slow selling month (Locals flock to the Algarve beaches), sales were up, to 108 units, keeping the EV Share above 0.7%.

With four five leadership changes this year and three different models passing by the leadership, this is turning out to be one of the most entertaining rankings to look at, with August being no exception, due to a sales slump from the Nissan Leaf (8 units, worst result of the year), the fleet-favorite Mercedes C350e (18 units) rose to #1, with the Bronze medalist Outlander PHEV also off to vacations (9 units, worst result in 2016), the Merc won a precious advantage over its two direct competitors. 

Besides Mercedes, there was another German automaker with reasons to be happy, the BMW i3 tied with the Merc C350e in the August Best Seller trophy, with 18 units, while the BMW 330e has beaten its personal best, registering 12 units and climbing to #7 in the YTD ranking. Were not the Bavarian sedan production constrained and it would probably outsell its Mercedes arch rival...

In the manufacturers ranking, there's also a close race, with Mercedes (18%) rising to the leadership, but Nissan (18%, down 1%) is still dangerously close, while the Third placed Mitsubishi (14%, down 2%) has BMW (13%) closing in.

Pl
Portugal
August
2016
%
Pl '15
1
2
Mercedes C350e
Nissan Leaf
18
8
195
187
17
16
5
2
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV916514
1
4BMW i3 *
18
125
11
3
5
5
7
8
9
10
11
11
13
13
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
22
24
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Zoe
BMW 330e
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Renault Twizy
Volvo XC90 T8
Renault Kangoo ZE
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Kia Soul EV 
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Volkswagen e-Golf
Tesla Model S
BMW i8
Mercedes B250e
BMW X5 40e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Mercedes S500e
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Volkswagen e-Up!
11
5
12
5
4
2

2
2
3

5

1
1

1


1
102
102
35
30
25
20
16
16
15
15
14
13
11
10
10
9
8
5
5
4
9
9
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
9
4
N/A
11
6
28
12
N/A
16
N/A
10
18
16
20
15
25
N/A
20
8
14
24
26
27
27
27
27
Peugeot iOn
Audi A3 e-Tron
Citröen Berlingo EV
Smart Fortwo ED
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mercedes GLE500e




4
3
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
18
30
22

N/A

TOTAL1081.148100

Source: ACAP

* - 14 BEV + 4 REX



Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids


PlModel   Aug. 2016 
1Toyota Yaris Hybrid61
2Toyota Auris Hybrid51
3Mercedes C350e18
4BMW i318
5BMW 330e12
  
If we combine regular hybrid sales with plug-ins, the usual two (Auris & Yaris) are in front, followed by the plug-in hybrid version of the Mercedes C-Class (C350e), tied with the BMW i3, while another PHEV shows up in #5, with the BMW 330e appearing for the first time in this ranking


Monday, September 26, 2016

UK H1 2016 (Top 10)



Premiums on the Attack Edition

Over 18.000 plug-ins were sold in the first Quarter of the year in the UK, up 30% YoY, down from the three digits growth rates of last year, but still firmly in positive territory and allowing the EV Share to climb to around 1.3%.

Looking at the models ranking, Britain's most popular plug-ins, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and Nissan Leaf, which in 2015 owned two thirds of the market, have lost momentum, if the Mitsubishi SUV still holds the leadership, despite a 24% sales drop, the Leaf not only lost the Second position to the Mercedes C350e, but is now seeing its Third Spot endangered by another Premium offering, the BMW 330e, that has jumped five places in three months, it will be a question of time until the Bimmer reaches the last place of the podium.

It wouldn't be surprising if, in a few months from now, the monthly leadership becomes an exclusive race between the Mercedes and BMW midsize offerings.

Despite dropping one position, the Tesla Model S saw their deliveries grow three fold, all while in the B-Segment/subcompact class, the Renault Zoe continues ahead of the BMW i3, but probably not for long, when the 33kWh version of the German hot hatch arrives, it will probably go on Hyperdrive mode and surpass not only the French product, but also a couple more in front of it.

In the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi is still ahead of the pack, with 27% share, but it is followed by the increasingly menacing BMW (17%) and Mercedes (16%).

A final reference for the seven Toyota Mirai registered, a car that sits beautifully the British landscape in places like Hull-upon-Haven.

Pl
UK
H1 '16 % '16H1'15Pos. '15
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV5.145276.7931
2Mercedes C350e2.76815N/AN/A
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nissan Leaf
BMW 330e
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Renault Zoe
BMW i3
Volvo XC90 T8
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
1.620
1.465
1.291
1.261
1.041
891
773
421
9
8
7
7
6
5
4
2
2.982
N/A
349
350
706
950
N/A
309
2
N/A
8
5
4
3
N/A
9








Source: RAC